Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical Indo-Pacific SST and Australian rainfall with improved ocean initial conditions

Title: Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical Indo-Pacific SST and Australian rainfall with improved ocean initial conditions. CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Fig. 1 Correlation of monthly T300 anomaly from (a) PEODAS and (b) PODAS with the observed analysis (EN3) for the period of 1982-2006. Fig. 2 Difference between the climatologies of predicted SST from (a) POAMA1.5b, (b) POAMA2.4a (non-flux corrected version) and (c) POAMA2.4b (flux corrected version) and observed mean SST (HadISST; Rayner et al. 2003) at 0, 3 and 6 months lead time (LT 0, LT 3 and LT 6, respectively) for the period 1980-2006. Positive (negative) values mean that POAMA predicts higher (lower) SST than observation on average. Fig. 4 Correlation of predicted (a) NINO3, (b) EMI and (c) DMI from POAMA1.5b (P1.5b), POAMA2 non-flux corrected version (P2.4a), POAMA2 flux corrected version (P2.4b) and persistence forecast verified against respective observed indices using the HadISST data set. Every month in 1980-2006 was used in forming the indices. (d) The same as (c) except verified against the observed DMI from the Reynolds Fig. 5 Normalised root-mean-square-error (NRMSE) of predicted (a) NINO3, (b) EMI and (c) DMI from P1.5b, P2.4a and P2.4b. RMSEs of the predicted indices were normalised by the standard deviations of the respective observed indices from the HadISST data set. Every month in 1980-2006 was used in forming the indices. (d) The same as (c) except using the observed DMI from the Reynolds SST data set. ......10 Fig. 6 Normalised standard deviation of predicted (a) NINO3, (b) EMI and (c) DMI from P1.5b, P2.4a and P2.4b (Standard deviations of the predicted indices were normalised by the standard deviations of the respective observed indices from the …